Trading Analysis - 18th Jan 2019


21 January 2019

End of Day

So ... strong buying from the start pushes the nett trade position up to +500K and the price paid for shares up to 43.4p.

Just before 9AM the first real Sells come in - a 50K sell then a few very small PI Sells and then two more 50K Sells, within a minutes of one another. This is followed by another 30K Sell and then a 50K Buy which may be part of a rollover with one of the previous Sells.

Despite the net trading position holding up at 9:46AM the Bid is dropped by 1p. Buys and Sells continue in balance until past 11AM when a massively discounted Sell of 582,513 is dropped in at 40.85p. This appears to impact the Ask for a quarter of an hour, until a second large trade of 566,012 shares at 41.5p arrives. The first of these trades is £238K in value, the second £235K.

I find it highly coincidental that two such similarly valued blocks of shares are traded in such a short space of time but the Bid and Ask remain the same before and after the trades. I believe that the second trade is a Buy and combined these form a rollover than has no impact on the overall nett trade position.

We carry on with Buys and Sell in rough equilibrium until Sells of 100K at 1:42PM and 300K at 1:45PM knock the net trade position back to zero. Buying again picks up after 2PM, and then around 3:20pm another couple of Sells - 250K and 80K again leaves us with a neutral trade position at 4PM.

Between 4:21PM and 4:24PM we have an interesting combination of trades - 250K at 41.60, 200K at 41.75 and 200K at 41.60. A naive attribution would put all these as PI Sells which would have a major and unexpected impact on the nett trade position. Instead I believe that the middle trade is actually a Buy and the second and third trades correspond to another low priced rollover (a bit like the old Bed & ISA's we regularly see). This leaves the end of day nett trade position at around minus 250K (i.e. 250K more Sells than Buys, which of course is not unreasonable given the last 2.5 weeks have shown an average of 550K more Buys than Sells each day.)

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