Trading Analysis - 12th Oct 2018


14 October 2018

End of Day

Up to 9am we see balanced trading with a tightening spread - this is usually a preamble for a move up - often in the case of a big sell being worked. Around 9am both the advertised Bid and Ask were increased - but there is no apparent reason for this - the 200K trade at 9:07:46 comes after the point at which the advertised prices were increased - and so looks like a sell, but with a large buy (which we might infer caused the increase in advertised prices) yet to be reported.

Remember - we had exactly the same situation on the previous day - a sudden increase in advertised prices coinciding with a 250K trade. On that occasion I assumed it was a sell, with a large buy yet to be reported. But no such delayed buy has been reported, and again we have no justification for why the advertised prices moved up so much. Should delayed buys not appear we may be forced to return to these trades and perhaps reassign them as significant buys that moved the SP up. If this is the case then we will naturally need to consider why it seemed necessary to mask these large Buys - the answer would not be hard, the Market Makers (and Buyer no doubt) do not like the general public to know that there may be someone building a position.

Onwards to 10:56am and there is a clear Bed and Breakfast pair - as there is not much else going on I have chosen to highlight in green the Sell part of this trade - see how it is right at the bottom of the advertised trading band - this allows the largest number of shares to be transferred from one account to another by the B&B process. Some 9 seconds later there is the Buy part of the trade, the filled circle just above it. This occurs at a marginally higher price than the Sell trade, and with the overall cost remaining fixed the investor gets back slightly less shares than they initially sold. On this occasion each trade is roughly 50K shares so if you do not assign this properly (all the forms of 'Technical Analysis' that I am aware of) as a B&B pair you will assume that c. 100K shares have been sold by PIs. 

Towards the end of the day the Ask drops back followed by a little flurry of buying in the last hour of trading. The end of day nett trading position has it that c. 300K more shares were sold by PIs than bought by them, though of course this may change should a significant buy around 9am be reported later.

No further delayed trades have been reported for previous days so the current Market Maker position is as shown below:

Market Makers appear to still be short of 2.2M shares. Possibly more if the unexplained SP rises on thursday and friday result in large late reported buys.

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